A randomised control trial of the effectiveness of personalised letters sent subsequent to school dental inspections in increasing registration in unregistered children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent studies have cast doubt on the effectiveness and efficiency of school based dental screening programmes in improving dental attendance or improving dental health. In 2002 the National Dental Inspection Programme was introduced in Scotland which categorises children by their dental health and informs parents of the findings via a personalised letter home and encourages dental registration. In addition, epidemiological data for local and national planning purposes is collected. This replaced an earlier school screening system in Lothian where a generic letter urging registration was sent to children who were identified as not being registered with a dentist. The objective of this study is to compare dental registrations rates among unregistered children in these two school inspection systems with a system where letters were sent home but no dental inspection was carried out.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was designed as a single blinded, cluster randomised, controlled trial involving 12,765 12–13-year-old children attending all 65 state Secondary schools in Lothian and Fife during the academic year 2003/4.</p> <p>After stratifying for school size and range of social deprivation, schools were randomly allocated to one of four groups:</p> <p>1. 'Traditional' inspection, letter to unregistered children only,</p> <p>2. Letter sent home to unregistered children only, no inspection,</p> <p>3. National Dental Inspection Programme, letter to all children,</p> <p>4. Control group in which the children were neither inspected nor sent a letter.</p> <p>Dental Registration status was compared at baseline and 3 months post inspection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The registration levels in both the 'Traditional' screening and the NDIP inspection groups rose 3 months post inspection (14% and 15.8% respectively) but were not significantly different from one another or the control group which rose by 15.8% (p > 0.05). The group who were sent a letter home but were not inspected also has a rise in registration levels of 18.1% which was not significantly different from either of the groups who were inspected or the control group (p > 0.05). The only significant predictors of registration were previous registration (p < 0.05) and within those who previously registered, the length of time since last registration (P < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Neither of the two dental inspection methods nor a letter home to unregistered children resulted in a significant rise in registration rates in 12–13-year-olds compared to a control group of children who received no intervention.</p

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence.</p

Detection of Airborne Biological Particles in Indoor Air Using a Real-Time Advanced Morphological Parameter UV-LIF Spectrometer and Gradient Boosting Ensemble Decision Tree Classifiers

We present results from a study evaluating the utility of supervised machine learning to classify single particle ultraviolet laser-induced fluorescence (UV-LIF) signatures to investigate airborne primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP) concentrations in a busy, multifunctional building using a Multiparameter Bioaerosol Spectrometer. First we introduce and demonstrate a gradient boosting ensemble decision tree algorithm’s ability to accurately classify laboratory generated PBAP samples into broad taxonomic classes with a high level of accuracy. We then develop a framework to appraise the classification accuracy and performance using the Hellinger distance metric to compare product parameter probability density function similarity; this framework showed that key training classes were sufficiently different in terms of particle fluorescence and morphology to facilitate classification. We also demonstrate the utility of including advanced morphological parameters to minimise inter-class conflation and improve classification confidence, where relying on the fluorescent spectra alone would likely result in misattribution. Finally, we apply these methods to ambient data collected within a large multi-functional building where ambient bacterial- and fungal-like classes were identified to display trends corresponding to human activity; fungal-like classes displayed a consistent diurnal trend with a maximum at midday and hourly peaks correlating to movements within the building; bacteria-like aerosol displayed complex, episodic events during opening hours. All PBAP classes fell to low baseline concentrations when the building was unoccupied overnight and at weekendsPeer reviewe

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

The UV Continuum Slopes of Early Star-Forming Galaxies in JADES

The power-law slope of the rest-UV continuum ($f_{\lambda}\propto\lambda^{\beta}$) is a key metric of early star forming galaxies, providing one of our only windows into the stellar populations and physical conditions of $z>10$ galaxies. Expanding upon previous studies with limited sample sizes, we leverage deep imaging from JADES to investigate the UV slopes of 179 $z>9$ galaxies with apparent magnitudes of $m_{\rm F200W}=26-31$, which display a median UV slope of $\beta=-2.4$. We compare to a statistical sample of $z=5-9$ galaxies, finding a shift toward bluer rest-UV colors at all $\rm~M_{UV}$. The most UV-luminous $z>9$ galaxies are significantly bluer than their lower-redshift counterparts, representing a dearth of moderately-red galaxies in the first $500~$Myr. At yet earlier times, the $z>11$ galaxy population exhibits very blue UV slopes, implying very low attenuation from dust. We identify a robust sample of 44 galaxies with $\beta<-2.8$, which have SEDs requiring models of density-bounded HII regions and median ionizing photon escape fractions of $0.51$ to reproduce. Their rest-optical colors imply that this sample has weaker emission lines (median $m_{\rm F356W}-m_{\rm F444W}=0.19$ mag) than typical galaxies (median $m_{\rm F356W}-m_{\rm F444W}=0.39$ mag), consistent with the inferred escape fractions. This sample has relatively low stellar masses (median $\log(M/M_{\odot})=7.5$), and specific star-formation rates (median$=79\rm/Gyr$) nearly twice that of our full sample (median$=44\rm/Gyr$), suggesting they are more common among systems experiencing a recent upturn in star formation. We demonstrate that the shutoff of star formation provides an alternative solution for modelling of extremely blue UV colors, making distinct predictions for the rest-optical emission of these galaxies. Future spectroscopy will be required to distinguish between these physical pictures.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures; submitted to MNRA

Not just a matter of size:a hospital-level risk factor analysis of MRSA bacteraemia in Scotland

Background: Worldwide, there is a wealth of literature examining patient-level risk 6 factors for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteraemia. At the hospital-level it is generally accepted that MRSA bacteraemia is more common in larger hospitals. In Scotland, size does not fully explain all the observed variation among hospitals. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for the presence and rate of MRSA bacteraemia cases in Scottish mainland hospitals. Specific hypotheses regarding hospital size, type and connectivity were examined. Methods: Data from 198 mainland Scottish hospitals (defined as having at least one inpatient per year) were analysed for financial year 2007-08 using logistic regression (Model 1: presence/absence of MRSA bacteraemia) and Poisson regression (Model 2: rate of MRSA bacteraemia). The significance of risk factors representing various measures of hospital size, type and connectivity were investigated. Results: In Scotland, size was not the only significant risk factor identified for the presence and rate of MRSA bacteraemia. The probability of a hospital having at least one case of MRSA bacteraemia increased with hospital size only if the hospital exceeded a certain level of connectivity. Higher levels of MRSA bacteraemia were associated with the large, highly connected teaching hospitals with high ratios of patients to domestic staff. Conclusions: A hospital’s level of connectedness within a network may be a better measure of a hospital’s risk of MRSA bacteraemia than size. This result could be used to identify high risk hospitals which would benefit from intensified infection control measures

The Star-forming and Ionizing Properties of Dwarf z~6-9 Galaxies in JADES: Insights on Bursty Star Formation and Ionized Bubble Growth

Reionization is thought to be driven by faint star-forming galaxies, but characterizing this population in detail has long remained very challenging. Here we utilize deep nine-band NIRCam imaging from JADES to study the star-forming and ionizing properties of 756 $z\sim6-9$ galaxies, including hundreds of very UV-faint objects ($M_\mathrm{UV}>-18$). The faintest ($m\sim30$) galaxies in our sample typically have stellar masses of $M_\ast\sim(1-3)\times10^7$ $M_\odot$ and young light-weighted ages ($\sim$50 Myr), though some show strong Balmer breaks implying much older ages ($\sim$500 Myr). We find no evidence for extremely massive galaxies ($>3\times10^{10}$ $M_\odot$) in our sample. We infer a strong (factor $>$2) decline in the typical [OIII]$+$H$\beta$ EWs towards very faint $z\sim6-9$ galaxies, yet a weak UV luminosity dependence on the H$\alpha$ EWs at $z\sim6$. We demonstrate that these EW trends can be explained if fainter galaxies have systematically lower metallicities as well as more recently-declining star formation histories relative to the most UV-luminous galaxies in our sample. Our data provide evidence that the brightest galaxies are frequently experiencing a recent strong upturn in SFR. We also discuss how the EW trends may be influenced by a strong correlation between $M_\mathrm{UV}$ and Lyman continuum escape fraction. This alternative explanation has dramatically different implications for the contribution of galaxies along the luminosity function to cosmic reionization, highlighting the need for deep spectroscopic follow-up. Finally, we quantify the photometric overdensities around two $z>7$ strong Ly$\alpha$ emitters in the JADES footprint. One Ly$\alpha$ emitter lies close to a strong photometric overdensity while the other shows no significant nearby overdensity, perhaps implying that not all strong $z>7$ Ly$\alpha$ emitters reside in large ionized bubbles.Comment: 29 pages, 16 figures. Submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcom

Scientific Opinion about the Guidance of the Chemical Regulation Directorate (UK) on how aged sorption studies for pesticides should be conducted, analysed and used in regulatory assessments

Abstract The EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues reviewed the guidance on how aged sorption studies for pesticides should be conducted, analysed and used in regulatory assessment. The inclusion of aged sorption is a higher tier in the groundwater leaching assessment. The Panel based its review on a test with three substances taken from a data set provided by the European Crop Protection Association. Particular points of attention were the quality of the data provided, the proposed fitting procedure of aged sorption experiments and the proposed method for combining results obtained from aged sorption studies and lower‐tier studies on degradation and adsorption. Aged sorption was a relevant process in all cases studied. The test revealed that the guidance could generally be well applied and resulted in robust and plausible results. The Panel considers the guidance suitable for use in the groundwater leaching assessment after the recommendations in this Scientific Opinion have been implemented, with the exception of the use of field data to derive aged sorption parameters. The Panel noted that the draft guidance could only be used by experienced users because there is no software tool that fully supports the work flow in the guidance document. It is therefore recommended that a user‐friendly software tool be developed. Aged sorption lowered the predicted concentration in groundwater. However, because aged sorption experiments may be conducted in different soils than lower‐tier degradation and adsorption experiments, it cannot be guaranteed that the higher tier predicts lower concentrations than the lower tier, while lower tiers should be more conservative than higher tiers. To mitigate this problem, the Panel recommends using all available higher‐ and lower‐tier data in the leaching assessment. The Panel further recommends that aged sorption parameters for metabolites be derived only from metabolite‐dosed studies. The formation fraction can be derived from parent‐dosed degradation studies, provided that the parent and metabolite are fitted with the best‐fit model, which is the double first‐order in parallel model in the case of aged sorption

The Cosmos in its Infancy: JADES Galaxy Candidates at z > 8 in GOODS-S and GOODS-N

We present a catalog of 717 candidate galaxies at $z > 8$ selected from 125 square arcminutes of NIRCam imaging as part of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES). We combine the full JADES imaging dataset with data from the JEMS and FRESCO JWST surveys along with extremely deep existing observations from HST/ACS for a final filter set that includes fifteen JWST/NIRCam filters and five HST/ACS filters. The high-redshift galaxy candidates were selected from their estimated photometric redshifts calculated using a template fitting approach, followed by visual inspection from seven independent reviewers. We explore these candidates in detail, highlighting interesting resolved or extended sources, sources with very red long-wavelength slopes, and our highest redshift candidates, which extend to $z_{phot} = 18$. We also investigate potential contamination by stellar objects, and do not find strong evidence from SED fitting that these faint high-redshift galaxy candidates are low-mass stars. Over 93\% of the sources are newly identified from our deep JADES imaging, including 31 new galaxy candidates at $z_{phot} > 12$. Using 42 sources in our sample with measured spectroscopic redshifts from NIRSpec and FRESCO, we find excellent agreement to our photometric redshift estimates, with no catastrophic outliers and an average difference of $\langle \Delta z = z_{phot}- z_{spec} \rangle= 0.26$. These sources comprise one of the most robust samples for probing the early buildup of galaxies within the first few hundred million years of the Universe's history.Comment: v2: 40 pages, 18 figures, submitted to AAS Journals, online data catalog (JADES Deep only) found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.809252

JADES Imaging of GN-z11: Revealing the Morphology and Environment of a Luminous Galaxy 430 Myr After the Big Bang

We present JWST NIRCam 9-band near-infrared imaging of the luminous $z=10.6$ galaxy GN-z11 from the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) of the GOODS-N field. We find a spectral energy distribution (SED) entirely consistent with the expected form of a high-redshift galaxy: a clear blue continuum from 1.5 to 4 microns with a complete dropout in F115W. The core of GN-z11 is extremely compact in JWST imaging. We analyze the image with a two-component model, using a point source and a S\'{e}rsic profile that fits to a half-light radius of 200 pc and an index $n=0.9$. We find a low-surface brightness haze about $0.4''$ to the northeast of the galaxy, which is most likely a foreground object but might be a more extended component of GN-z11. At a spectroscopic redshift of 10.60 (Bunker et al. 2023), the comparison of the NIRCam F410M and F444W images spans the Balmer jump. From population synthesis modeling, here assuming no light from an active galactic nucleus, we reproduce the SED of GN-z11, finding a stellar mass of $\sim$$10^{9}~M_{\odot}$, a star-formation rate of $\sim$$20~M_{\odot}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and a young stellar age of $\sim$$20~\mathrm{Myr}$. As massive galaxies at high redshift are likely to be highly clustered, we search for faint neighbors of GN-z11, finding 9 galaxies out to $\sim$5 comoving Mpc transverse with photometric redshifts consistent with $z=10.6$, and a 10$^{\rm th}$ more tentative dropout only $3''$ away.Comment: Submitted to ApJ; 18 pages, 8 figures; comments welcom